March 2025 Positions Update

Batting Average consistent; Slugging Ratio WAY UP!

Hello OpTrackers,

What a month. The worst month for QQQ since Q2 2022. Given we closed a bunch of (theoretical) positions in February, we continued to be busy in the month of March rebuilding our portfolio of active names, adding two more on the long side. Given how the market traded in March it’s not too surprising we found more opportunities on the long side than the short side.

Some of you will also have noticed I turned on the option for premium subscriptions and posted my first premium idea. I plan to continue to publish both free and premium ideas, with enough behind the paywall that is makes the paying folks feel like they’re getting their money’s worth. And I truly believe the first name I wrote up behind the paywall is the best, most informative, and highest risk/rewards of the ideas I have written up so far.

One last complication with the paywall is that I will have to post two graphics updating how the ideas are doing. One will be above a paywall with all of the data but only the free names shown and then a non-redacted version below the paywall with everything. As you’ll note, the first premium idea is off to a great start. So, you consider subscribing!

Without further ado, here’s the update:

Portfolio & Position Commentary:

• Batting Averages: Our batting averages remain the mid-70s with roughly the same positions lagging on an absolute and alpha basis, except with the addition to COUR to the losers basket alongside new name, MATW.

• Slugging Ratios: Our slugging ratios have almost doubled, mainly because PCT has fallen ~30% since the last update and it was our biggest loser, so a big left tail outcome was carved out of the slugging ratio calculation. I continue to think the original thesis there holds and the stock will likely be going much lower.

  • Also, I would note that PCT has become a GC cost of borrow (about 50bps). When I initially wrote it up it was 5%. Sticking with my methodology I am holding it flat there and I am sure in the future I will be getting a benefit on a different position relative to the real-time cost, but just something to note for anyone just discovering this gem of a short today.

Other than that, not a whole lot to update you on. Until next time free subscription OpTrackers.

Happy hunting!