February 2025 | Position Updates

Coming out of a yearlong hibernation

Hello OpTrackers,

I let this Substack go fallow for almost a year but got the inspiration to check back in on how the ideas I had written up are doing. Here’s a quick summary of where things stand today:

Despite doing absolutely nothing, our batting average has returned to 90%+ on an absolute basis and 90%+ on an alpha basis when looking at closed positions. I remain pretty darn satisfied with this and it makes me want to keep writing up new ideas.

This seems like a good time to ask you to subscribe and share this post if you know anyone who might be interesting in a these kinds of results!

Position Commentary/Updates

Given how long it has been since the last update, it makes sense to close almost all of the positions previously written up.

• Most Shorts: For all the positions except NVAC, the positions are down enough that it’s just time to declare victory and move on. I have lost the thread on what happened to NVAC but it clearly has not de-SPAC’d, the stock has delisted to the pink sheets and volume is pitiful so it’s disingenuous to keep it open anyway. Despite the stock being up ~20% since writing up, the market is up far more so on an alpha basis things it was a fine outcome.

• ACIC: I believe this has the potential to continue to compound book value for a long period of time and the people thesis is still intact, so I am willing to let this one continue as a “live” position.

• Kelso (KLSO): The thesis here just hasn’t worked. The same people are there doing their thing, but they haven’t proven to be the savvy capital allocators you would hope their track records indicated they were. Nothing particularly terrible, and the stock is up on an absolute basis but has produced negative alpha. Happy to close this one here.

I hope to return to regularly publishing new ideas, but I have said that before, so we’ll see. Weekly may be a bit ambitious, but I am of the mindset that irregular is better than not at all.

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Again, if you know anyone who might be interested in a new source of substantial alpha on the both the long and short side, please smash the share button below :) I am still early days and every incremental subscriber means the world to us.

Until next time!

Please Note: I track these as a theoretical exercise and anything written on this blog should not be used as investment advice. Please consult a financial advisor before investing a dime of your own money. Additionally, these returns don’t perfectly capture borrow costs (or capture other potential offsets to returns at all) and realized returns may differ materially from the results shown here.